Ooops. Sorry Mario. Should have been more clear. Five Thirty Eight is http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com (all spelled out) rather than the numbers. Try that spelled-out address.

I’ll reply directly on the podcasting stuff. Thanks for listening!

Mario

Jon Kalish

Congratulations on the boys’ graduations. Much to be proud of. Wonderful about their adventure plans.

My guy David recently applied at school to travel with a couple dozen students to India and, while not accepted to the program, has his ambitions to maybe travel there on his own or one day for work.

Arete mentioned that she planned to meet you for lunch. I hope the two of you enjoyed your own private reunion. I’ve been in touch with Whitehill, Dickman, Howard Bernstein, Eric Sonquist (can’t attend) and Bruce Berkman about Cornell next month. Wish that you were there.

Part of reunion, for me, is making mental bookmarks about the state of the world. Ann Darby’s husband, Bill Dudley, is now President of the NY Federal Reserve, and I look forward to whatever candor she might share. Similarly, Former Dean and accouting professor Swieringa served on the board of GE during its Jack Welch years, and perhaps will have some perspective on the merits of financial engineering (especially with GE stock down some 75% over the past decade).

Heard your thoughts about the stock market recovery versus the world’s fundamentals. Of course, gains after big percentage declines have to be disproportionately big recoveries to begin getting back to even.

You used to race cars, so maybe you are receptive to the metaphor of the economy as a car in need of a major overhaul. Just making sure that the wheels don’t come off isn’t enough to get it running well, and so far that’s all that’s gotten done…and the electorate seems to be wondering just where is the trillion dollars that they’ve been billed. Expect more rants before all is done.

Anyway, glad to hear your voice. Wishing you and Marcie a relaxing holiday,

John

I figured that I would leave a comment. I have a multi-media website that few people have commented on. I like how you included music as an intro and out take.

I am doing some work for a community radio station in Columbus Ohio. Perhaps we can do a story about people who make podcasts.

Perhaps we could inquire into the political and other social results of using this new medium.

The link to the “print” version:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-chicago-tribune-endorsement,0,1371034.story

And, glad to hear another GeezerCast. I always look forward to your chats. Thanks.

Your geezercast reminds me that you were a radio guy once! I enjoyed listening to it. Did you say that it was Pascal rather than Descartes? I’m going to forward this to my friend Allan Brockway, who was ordained Methodist clergy in his youth, then a journalist, got his doctorate in England, etc. where he taught comparative religion, and now has evolved into what he calls being an archaeology tourist, whom I met in Syria during my last trip. He would support your usings, and would agree.

If you want to see the report on the Syria trip that he helped me with and posted on his web site you might go to
http://www.abrock.com

where you might find “Marian in the Levant”

I love the way the birds kicked into your sound track, let alone the music.
Are there other Geezer musings?

Pat must have been delighted by your independence of mind. I certainly am.

I’m writing this the day after the big O’Conner Christmas Party at the Campus Club, where the only one missing was Pat. I loved the way everyone in your
outfit kept a light touch going, deftly done. That O’Connor gene!

Fondly, Marian Dec. 16, 2007 Beethoven’s birthday

Fondly – Marian

Wonderful to hear your voice and reflections. Funny, too, hearing your salutation to your unborn grandchildren as I have begun thinking in terms of the next generation arriving perhaps before another decade has passed.

Regarding the economic market volatility that you’ve observed, I recently rejoined JP Morgan (in San Antonio TX of all places) and have gained a new set of tools through which to filter my capital market views. You are right that volatility has picked up recently, but might feel reassured to know that 2003-2006 was a period of highly unusual low volatility. Also, it might reassure somewhat that the market top that we saw in mid July corresponding with the same high multiples reached in 2006 relative to Dow Jones Industrial price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and dividend yield…simply meaning that long-term bond rates bottomed in 2005 after declining for more than twenty years, and that stock market valuations which are linked to bond yields are pretty much capped on the multiple side, and therefore dependent for the immediate future on corporate earnings growth. Of course, relative to the next two years, we are facing a slowdown in corporate earnings growth (maybe without a recession) and, I think, longer term higher bond yields. Why the higher bond yields? Partly just because we are at the tail end of an extended economic expansion and capacity utilization levels are high (so, labor costs are rising, as are hotel rooms in New Deli and New York). Emerging markets are driving global economic expansion and their expansion is inflationary; even more so, the US can only maintain full employment (and political stability) if we continue to steadily devalue the US dollar, and hence import inflation. I’ll send you the official JP Morgan summary, if you are a glutton for such. But wanted to send this short piece to sort of say there continues to be largely order in the economic markets, but with some end of cycle gear changing. Again, good to hear your voice and your words.

All the best, John